| Article ID: | iaor199133 |
| Country: | United States |
| Volume: | 38 |
| Issue: | 2 |
| Start Page Number: | 175 |
| End Page Number: | 186 |
| Publication Date: | Sep 1990 |
| Journal: | Technological Forecasting & Social Change |
| Authors: | Tingyan Xiao |
This paper presents a very general mathematical model for trend forecasts by combining some basic substitution models in a new way. The model can cover the exponential, logistic, Gompertz, Von Bertalanffy and mod. NSRL models. Moreover, it can accommodate some time patterns differing from the existing substitution models. Some properties of this model are discussed and data from U.S. electrical power production (1945-1979) and growth of population of China (1949-1984) are analyzed to illustrate the effectiveness of the model.