Development of a cross-impact hierarchical model for deciding technology priority

The objective of this paper is to develop a new priority setting algorithm that considers the cross-impact of the future technology alternatives and that satisfies the final goal of the technology management through multi-hierarchy evaluation criteria. By combining the Analytic Hierarchy Process model, which is a well-known priority setting model, and Cross Impact Analysis model, which is a technological forecasting method that considers cross-impact among R&D items, we developed an integrated Cross-Impact Hierarchical model, which sets the priority by considering technological forecasting and technology dependency simultaneously. A step-by-step numerical example of the model developed here is presented as backup of its practicality.