A method for optimization of decisions under incomplete information

Based on the concepts of ‘possibility’, a degree of comparison between two interval numbers, this paper presents a method for choosing the optimal decision from given ones with incomplete probability information and under the conditions that the conditional expected loss values are interval numbers. The method is interactive with the decision-maker, and by reducing the given strategies gradually the optimal strategy can be obtained. The method can meet the subjective desire of the decision-makers sufficiently and needs less information. It is also easy to implement on a computer. Finally, a numerical example is given. The theoretical analysis and numerical result all show that the method is feasible and effective. Thus, a new way is offered to solve decision-making problem with incomplete information.