On the complementary value of accurate demand information and production and supplier flexibility

We study the value of information, production flexibility, and supplier flexibility for a good for which an initial and a subsequent order may be placed. We consider a Bayesian model of demand in which the unknown mean demand rate is assumed to have a prior, which is a mixture of two normal distributions corresponding to the demand forecast for an innovative (fashion) good. We develop three models of production flexibility: a static model requiring initial placement of both orders, a partially dynamic model requiring a fixing of the time that the second order will be made, and a fully dynamic model with no restrictions on ordering. Supplier flexibility is modeled through supply lead times. We observe that the magnitude of the savings from the static to the fully flexible model, corresponding to the sum of the values of information and production flexibility, reflects all sources of variability: differences between demand means of the prior mixture, variability within each prior, and variability about the observed mean. We observe that as the difference between high and low demand cases increases, the value of information increases, though for long lead times, production flexibility is required to take advantage of the updated information. Further, we observe that the greater the uncertainty within each prior distribution, the greater the value of information relative to the value of production flexibility, particularly for long lead times. However, the greater the uncertainty around the mean demand, which is the uncertainty that cannot be resolved through observation, the lower the value of information. Finally, we observe that the value of supply flexibility grows initially in a concave then convex manner as a function of the supply lead times.