New York Power Authority uses decision analysis to schedule refueling of its Indian Point 3 Nuclear Power Plant

The New York Power Authority (NYPA) wanted to develop a 10-year schedule for refueling its Indian Point 3 Nuclear Power Plant (IP3) that balanced fish protection, which occurs when IP3 is shut down for refueling, and the costs of buying and loading fuel. We developed a decision analysis model to compare alternative strategies for refueling. It explicitly considered key uncertainties associated with future operation: how well IP3 operates, how long it takes to refuel, and when New York State is likely to deregulate the electric utility industry. The NYPA decision makers used the model to reinforce their choice of a refueling strategy. They were not surprised that more fish protection occurred with strategies that restricted the starting date for refueling to the third week in May, rather than allowing the starting date to float throughout the period from May through August. However, the decision makers were surprised that the more restrictive strategies also resulted in lower costs.