A multi-stage multi-attribute decision model for project selection

In most multi-attribute decision models, much effort is directed at obtaining utility functions of the decision makers for the individual attributes that encode behaviour towards risk. A three-stage methodology is provided to simplify the process and to reduce cognitive stress for the decisionmaker. At the first stage, alternatives which are dominated and/or have significant technological uncertainties are screened out. At the second stage, concepts are modified from some psychological theories of decisionmaking to eliminate alternatives in which some or all attributes do not possess certain aspects. At the end of the first two stages, alternatives that remain have acceptable risk. At the final stage, value functions are used to obtain the preferred alternative under imprecise preference information. The methodology is applied to the real world problem of choosing a project for providing fresh water to the city of Newport News, Virginia, U.S.A.