| Article ID: | iaor1991155 |
| Country: | South Korea |
| Volume: | 15 |
| Issue: | 2 |
| Start Page Number: | 103 |
| End Page Number: | 108 |
| Publication Date: | Dec 1989 |
| Journal: | Journal of the Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers |
| Authors: | Kim S., Won Y., Chae K. |
PERT formulae for the mean and variance of activity time are near exact only over a short interval of the concentration parameter which is defined as the sum of the two shape parameters of the beta distribution. Aiming a better estimation of the mean and variance of activity time, the authors propose a method of subjectively estimating this concentration parameter via estimating the probability of completing the activity within a specified time interval. [In Korean.]