Theoretical basis of PERT formula and a new estimation method

Theoretical basis of PERT formula and a new estimation method

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Article ID: iaor1991155
Country: South Korea
Volume: 15
Issue: 2
Start Page Number: 103
End Page Number: 108
Publication Date: Dec 1989
Journal: Journal of the Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
Authors: , ,
Abstract:

PERT formulae for the mean and variance of activity time are near exact only over a short interval of the concentration parameter which is defined as the sum of the two shape parameters of the beta distribution. Aiming a better estimation of the mean and variance of activity time, the authors propose a method of subjectively estimating this concentration parameter via estimating the probability of completing the activity within a specified time interval. [In Korean.]

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