On the strategy of diversion

This article begins with the observation that great military commanders have been able to achieve victory in battle using a diversionary strategy. They convince their counterpart that the main attack is beginning at some place that it really isn't. This article asks why their opposing commanders are so easily fooled. To study this issue we employ a simple game where an attacking force is pitted against a defending force. We show that, when the defending commander has a limited force, he is subject to two unfortunate outcomes: in one he pits most or all of his reserve force against the bluff; and in the second he will choose not to commit his full reserve to a full frontal assault.