Properties of the battle trace

This article investigates a measure of effectiveness called the battle trace. A representation is derived that involves only one-sided force strength data and a parameter called the battle discriminant. This appears to suggest that it may be possible to forecast a battle's outcome knowing only information about friendly force strength. However, estimating the battle discriminant requires force strength information about both combatants. A point estimate and a significance test for the battle discriminant are developed. For actual battles, two-sided force strength data might be difficult to obtain, though perhaps less so as information technology advances. In simulations, as well as in testing or training situations, data availability might be less problematical. With improvements in information technology, estimates of the battle discriminant may be possible over increasingly shorter time intervals, providing faster, more timely information for the decisionmaker.