Modelling combat using fractals and the statistics of scaling systems

The New Zealand Army is currently undergoing a programme of modernisation, and at the same time is using operations analysis to explore possible future force structures. Current operations analysis methods and wargaming tools typically place heavy emphasis on weapons capabilities. But if targets adapt their tactics to counter the threat of an advanced weapon system, the pay-off from this advance may be much lower than otherwise expected. Since such an effect is due to the behaviour of the participants, rather than the physics of their weapons, an effort must be made to understand how incorporating behaviour into combat modelling affects the outcomes. The Defence Operational Technology Support Establishment (DOTSE) has been developing methods of characterising these effects, and this report describes some of key ideas underlying our efforts.