A random variable approach to nuclear targeting and survivability

Combinations of probabilistic operations research methods and applied statistics can provide a surprisingly powerful mathematical tool for nuclear strategic operations practitioners. A random variable theory for nuclear targeting and survivability is demonstrated which is powerful enough to explain the past and predict the future. In this context, explaining the past means deriving from first principles Douhet's 1921 notion of ‘circles of destruction’, and the 1960s Cold War approach of the Physical Vulnerability System and its central mathematical results. The context of predicting the future includes the treatment of new problems in a modular and straightforward way that is extremely difficult using current nuclear targeting methods, including the problem of weapons effects variations due to a degrading nuclear stockpile with significant yield uncertainty.