Ardennes campaign simulation

The Ardennes Campaign Simulation (ARCAS) study was performed to improve the credibility of the Stochastic Concepts Evaluation Model (STOCEM), a theater level combat simulation, by comparing the outcome of a STOCEM simulation of the World War II (WW II) Ardennes campaign of 1944–45 (also known as the Battle of the Bulge) with historical campaign results. Historical campaign data had been developed, using archival sources, into a computerized data base denoted as the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base (ACSDB). The initial positions, configuration, strengths, compositions and availability of forces for the campaign, as depicted in the ACSDB, are used to define the STOCEM force laydown. Representative simulation results (front line movement, major system losses, and personnel casualties) are compared with historical results from the ACSDB. Stochastic variability of model results is also quantified in terms of confidence limits about each sample mean and bounds on sample outcomes. The comparison of simulation results with history is used to develop guidelines for investigating algorithmic changes which may improve model credibility of the STOCEM. Insights on model verification and validation are also developed. Study results indicate that ARCAS STOCEM tends to generate more force movement, weapon system losses, and personnel casualties than occurred in history. Investigations of potential changes to STOCEM logic/inputs suggested by the simulation/history comparisons include simulation of a ‘breakthrough’ attack posture, moderation of attacker move rate in response to a sustained rapid combat advance, and reduction of base lethality against armor for an attacker possessing a high strength advantage.