Manoeuvre warfare: Some conditions associated with success at the operational level

This paper is concerned with the conditions likely to enhance the chances of achieving a breakthrough in modern manoeuvre warfare, and then of achieving success in the subsequent campaign. The study which it describes was based on some 159 battles, which a military historian assessed in terms of the success criteria just mentioned, and also rated in terms of some 32 qualitative factors. Of these factors it seems that the achievement of surprise; the employment of aggressive ground reconnaissance; and the condition of air superiority enjoyed by the attacking side, were most strongly associated with success. The study also emphasized the positive relationships which existed between a high rate of terrain capture, a favourable loss ratio and the probability of a favourable campaign outcome. The paper concludes with some discussion of these results, and draws out some implications for the future of battle modelling at the operational level.