Modeling cost and schedule uncertainties – A work breakdown structure perspective

When cost and schedule uncertainty analyses are presented to decision-makers, questions asked with increased urgency are: What is the likelihood of achieving cost and schedule? What is the chance of exceeding the most likely cost for a given schedule? How are cost reserve recommendations driven by schedule uncertainties? Questions such as these are not readily answered by currrent analysis tools and techniques. This paper advances the state-of-the-practice by describing a family of, less known, multivariate probability models suitable for addressing these and related questions. The application of these models is presented from a work breakdown structure perspective, the traditional framework for developing program resource estimates.