A growth cycle characterisation and forecasting of the Spanish economy: 1970–1998

In contrast to classical cycles, growth cycles are more likely to represent the present stage of economic activity. This paper analyzes the growth cycle chronology of the Spanish economy from 1970 to 1998, based on the official rules depicted by the Spanish Statistical Institute. Alternatively, we propose a simple method that not only anticipates such reference cycle but can also be used as a forecasting tool in predicting turning points. Given these good properties, the method is also used in computing the so-called ‘stylized facts’ among the main economic aggregates.