Cyclical aspects of business cycle turning points

This paper analyses changes in the intensity and duration of US business cycles through the spectrum of turning points chronology. We consider two alternative chronologies: one produced by the NBER dating committees and the other derived from the Markov switching regime model of the growth rate of general economic activity. As a result of favorable changes in economic conditions during the past few decades, the strength of traditional business cycles weakened and spread outside the typical band; that is, the periodicities of 2 to 8 years duration. Modern business cycles appear to be in interaction with major and minor cycles. A major NBER cycle of 10-year duration incorporates, on average, two 5-year cycles and each 5-year cycle embodies two minor cycles. On the other hand, the growth cycle of 10-year duration incorporates, on average, three cycles of 3.5 years duration, and each of them embodies one-and-a-half minor cycles.