Using Tocher's curve to convert subjective quantile-estimates into a probability distribution function

Using Tocher's curve to convert subjective quantile-estimates into a probability distribution function

0.00 Avg rating0 Votes
Article ID: iaor20021464
Country: United States
Volume: 31
Issue: 3
Start Page Number: 245
End Page Number: 254
Publication Date: Mar 1999
Journal: IIE Transactions
Authors: , ,
Abstract:

One standard approach for estimating a subjective distribution is to elicit subjective quantiles from a human expert. However, most decision-making models require a random variable's moments and/or distribution function instead of its quantiles. In the literature little attention has been given to the problem of converting a given set of subjective quantiles into moments and/or a distribution function. We show that this conversion problem is far from trivial, and that the most commonly used conversion procedure often produces large errors. An alternative procedure using ‘Tocher's curve’ is proposed, and its performance is evaluated with a wide variety of test distributions. The method is shown to be more accurate than a commonly used procedure.

Reviews

Required fields are marked *. Your email address will not be published.