A control procedure based on system dynamics and multicriteria analysis for the management of complex and chaotic socio-economic processes

Socio-economic processes are difficult to control because of their complex and chaotic behavioural modes. In this paper we propose a new decision-aid tool merging the simulation techniques of System Dynamics with the multicriteria methodological framework PROMETHEE-GAIA. This combined methodology gives the means to calibrate the model representing a complex socio-economic system, to choose a stategy in order to achieve at best some long-term objectives and to consider appropriate control variables. Furthermore, it allows real-time monitoring of the system evolution, in order to adapt the chosen policy and, if necessary, to avoid unpredicted catastrophic deviations from the expected time paths of main variables.