A greenhouse gas emission model for Korea

We present the main structure of the Greenhouse Gas Emission Model for Korea (GEMA-K), which is developed by IGES to cover the countries in Asia (Greenhouse Gas Emission Model for Asia: GEMA). We describe our estimation methods for the component equations of the energy demand module and the key parameters such as fuel substitution elasticities and technical change parameters entering the computable general equilibrium (CGE) module of GEMA-K. We find that energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions in Korea will continuously increase at a steady growth rate, as long as economic growth sustains. The energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions in the transportation sector will increase rapidly for next two decades mainly due to the increase in income. Energy and carbon dioxide emission profiles of the Korean industrial sector are mainly driven by its structural changes toward less energy-intensive industries for the next coming decades. For the residential and the commercial sectors, the increase in carbon dioxide emissions is slower than that in energy demand, since fuel substitution to less carbon-intensive fuels is to occur in these sectors.