Modelling the implications of the Kyoto Protocol for a developing country

This paper deals with the simulation of the implications for the economy of Colombia of the Kyoto Protocol on reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The Protocol proposes three flexibility instruments for reaching at a lower global cost the reduction targets: the Clean Development Mechanism and Joint Implementation that would permit developing and developed countries to co-operate on a project by project basis, as well as the International Emissions Trading among developed countries. An important question is to identify precisely the benefits accruing to both parties in such agreements or trade schemes. Taking, as an hypothetical example, a co-operation between Switzerland and Colombia, and using a family of techno-economic models related to MARKAL, one presents a set of simulations of the response of the energy system of Colombia to abatement measures proposed in the Kyoto Protocol. The paper shows the necessity to go through this type of modelling approach if the policies recommended in the Kyoto Protocol have to be successfully implemented.