The use of Bayesian forecasting to make process adjustments during transitions

The use of Bayesian forecasting to make process adjustments during transitions

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Article ID: iaor20013746
Country: Netherlands
Volume: 130
Issue: 2
Start Page Number: 437
End Page Number: 448
Publication Date: Apr 2001
Journal: European Journal of Operational Research
Authors: ,
Keywords: time series & forecasting methods
Abstract:

In many manufacturing operations, a system may exhibit dynamic behavior before reaching a steady-state level. This is most frequently associated with a transition in production like a product style change or a grade change. During the transition phase, the output does not respond instantaneously to a change in input. However, there is typically some information about the past transition phase performance available. We develop an adjustment policy for transition periods based on using a Bayesian forecast to incorporate the prior information. We present computational results showing average process improvements under various system and noise disturbance conditions.

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