Article ID: | iaor20013746 |
Country: | Netherlands |
Volume: | 130 |
Issue: | 2 |
Start Page Number: | 437 |
End Page Number: | 448 |
Publication Date: | Apr 2001 |
Journal: | European Journal of Operational Research |
Authors: | Nembhard David A., Nembhard Harriet Black |
Keywords: | time series & forecasting methods |
In many manufacturing operations, a system may exhibit dynamic behavior before reaching a steady-state level. This is most frequently associated with a transition in production like a product style change or a grade change. During the transition phase, the output does not respond instantaneously to a change in input. However, there is typically some information about the past transition phase performance available. We develop an adjustment policy for transition periods based on using a Bayesian forecast to incorporate the prior information. We present computational results showing average process improvements under various system and noise disturbance conditions.