The use of an expert system in the M3 competition

The use of an expert system in the M3 competition

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Article ID: iaor20013126
Country: Netherlands
Volume: 16
Issue: 4
Start Page Number: 485
End Page Number: 496
Publication Date: Oct 2000
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting
Authors: ,
Keywords: artificial intelligence: expert systems
Abstract:

The Expert System that one of the authors had developed during his dissertation was tried on the data set of the M3 Competition. The expert system was originally designed to forecast monthly demand for industrial products in a distribution environment and was modified to run the data. The results of the application of the system were mixed as in some of the time series the results were statistically undistinguishable with the exception of the monthly series. In general, the intervention did not improve the accuracy and the effort required to do it was substantial.

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