Why are forecast updates often disappointing?

Why are forecast updates often disappointing?

0.00 Avg rating0 Votes
Article ID: iaor20011628
Country: United States
Volume: 2
Issue: 2
Start Page Number: 119
End Page Number: 127
Publication Date: Mar 2000
Journal: Manufacturing & Service Operations Management
Authors: ,
Abstract:

Demand forecasts do not become consistently more accurate as they are updated. We present examples demonstrating this counterintuitive phenomenon and some theoretical results to explain its occurrence. Specifically, we analyze the effect of demand randomness on forecast-update performance. A surprising result is that under various theoretical models involving demand randomness alone, update forecasts will be less accurate between 30% and 50% of the time.

Reviews

Required fields are marked *. Your email address will not be published.