An age-structured model for the AIDS epidemic

Recent research has shown that the incubation period of HIV, the virus that leads to AIDS, is clearly age dependent. This paper describes a model that takes as input an age-profile from the homosexual population and outputs the changing profiles over time of the susceptible, HIV infectives and AIDS cases. Where possible comparisons have been made with European data, in particular from the Greater London region and France. The model can be adapted to incorporate the effects of campaigns such as government-sponsored AIDS prevention programmes. In particular, it is possible to determine which age-groups need to be targeted for a campaign to be most effective. Similarly, the model could be helpful in mounting age-dependent treatment programmes.