This study estimates the extent to which embodied CO2 emissions are increased or reduced when a socioeconomic structural change occurs. Embodied CO2 emissions were estimated by Input–Output models (I–O models) and a General Equilibrium model (GE model), and the respective results were compared. The embodied CO2 emissions differ greatly depending on the assumptions of the total system. The embodied CO2 emissions obtained by I–O models are much larger than those obtained by the GE model. In some cases, the total CO2 emissions increase even if less intermediate inputs are required owing to technological improvement. It is shown that taking I–O type embodied emissions alone into consideration is insufficient for the estimation of policy effects. Careful consideration is necessary to effectively reduce emissions when production and consumption are interconnected in a complex way.
