Analysing production and environmental risks in arable farming systems: A mathematical approach

In response to a growing environmental concern in Dutch society, sustainable production systems in arable farming have been developed. Amongst other things, a reduction of the dependency on chemical inputs is attempted. This paper addresses the role of risk in the adoption by farmers of new systems by means of a model that determines differences in production risks between conventional and sustainable farming systems (CAFS and IAFS). Timing of activities – setting out a management track – is particularly important in sustainable arable farming systems. Resource requirements of crop husbandry activities mainly depend on weather conditions. To assess risks caused by weather conditions, the major aspects of crop husbandry in various crops have been modelled. Using tactics in crop husbandry (decision rules) and weather uncertainty as input, crop husbandry models (HMs) calculate management tracks that require resources. The value distributions of resource requirements of crop husbandry according to different farming systems is calculated in different HMs represented by stochastic dynamic directed networks. Hence, production risks of CAFS and IAFS can be compared. On a farm, all the aspects of crop husbandry in the various crops are to be taken into account. Given the weather conditions, tactics for all the aspects are combined in an LP model of the whole farm where they compete for limited resources. In the LP model, tactics are reassessed by means of the HMS, using information of the LP solution. This iterative procedure enables production risks of CAFS and IAFS to be compared, considering fixed, allocatable resources for the whole farm firm.