Diagnosing the safety of flights by means of a statistical method

The problems concerning the safety of flights in military aircraft are discussed. A statistical method concerning flight safety is presented, based on the analysis of numbers of accidents in military aircraft. The analysis relies upon the dependency between the times of flights, the amount of aircraft incidents threatening the safety of flights, as well as defining the influence of flights on the number of accidents. The coefficient of correlation, the empirical line of regression and the parabolic regression illustrating the dependency of accident indices on flight intensity are shown. The possibilities of making use of this method in order to define the conditions concerning the safety of flights in aircraft units and to conduct comparative analysis of accident indices in the whole range of flight intensity are pointed out. This method can be used to prognose threats (dangers) in flights, as well as to mark out the main directions of preventive activities.