Using robust concept exploration and systems dynamics models in the design of complex industrial ecosystems

In studying complex systems such as an organization, a system of industries, or a natural ecosystem, models are developed to enhance the amount and quality of information that a decision-maker can obtain. Due to the complexity of such systems, the simulation models include approximations of the real world. In this paper, system dynamics is used to model the flow and accumulation of matter, information, and energy in a system of industries in Kalundborg, Denmark. This model is utilized in the analysis and improvement of the Kalundborg system with a response surface-based concept exploration process in which the degree of approximation present in the simulation model is acknowledged and handled. Instead of directly using response surfaces to make decisions, the information embodied in the response surfaces is used to locate promising regions of the design space, which are then searched with the simulation model. This response surface based concept exploration process is unique in that: (i) the final recommendations are based on the simulation model, not on an approximation of the simulation model, and (ii) by relying on the simulation model, instead of solely relying on response surfaces, design knowledge is increased without sacrificing design freedom. In this paper, the overall approach, the method, and its validation, as opposed to results particular to the case study, are of primary importance.