Manufacturing lead time accuracy

This article addresses the question of accuracy of planned lead times (PLTs) that are used with a material requirements planning system. Lead time error is defined as the difference between an item’s PLT and the actual lead time (flow time) of an order to replenish the item. Three related topics are discussed: the relationship between system performance and average lead time error, the transient effect on work-in-process (WIP) inventory of increasing PLTs, and the relative accuracy of three methods of determining PLTs. A distinction is made between available and WIP inventory. The former includes any purchased item, fabricated part, assembly, or finished good that is in storage and available for use or delivery. WIP denotes materials associated with open orders on the shop floor. It was concluded that average lead time error has a considerable affect on system performance. PLTs that are on average too long or too short increase available inventory; and the further the average error is from zero, the more pronounced the increase. Contrary to conventional wisdom, increasing PLTs will increase the service level (decrease backorders), unless PLTs are already severely inflated and MPS uncertainty (forecast error) is small. If PLTs are inflated, decreasing them will decrease the number of setups per unit time in the case of considerable demand uncertainty. Contrary to conventional wisdom, increasing PLTs causes only a transient rise WIP inventory.