Predicting seasonal diet in the yellow-bellied marmot: Success and failure for the linear programming model

Predicting seasonal diet in the yellow-bellied marmot: Success and failure for the linear programming model

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Article ID: iaor2000884
Volume: 112
Issue: 3
Start Page Number: 320
End Page Number: 330
Publication Date: Nov 1997
Journal: Oecologia (Berlin)
Authors:
Keywords: programming: linear, programming: dynamic
Abstract:

Seasonal diet selection in the yellow-bellied marmot (Marmota flaviventris) was studied at two sites in Montana during 1991 and 1992. A linear programming model of optimal diet selection successfully predicted the composition of observed diets (monocot versus dicot) in eight out of ten cases early in the active season (April–June). During this period, adult, yearling and juvenile marmots selected diets consistent with the predicted goal of energy maximisation. However, late in the active season (July–August), the model predicted the diet composition in only one out of six cases. In all six late-season determinations, the model underestimated the amount of monocot in the diet. Possible reasons why the model failed to reliably predict diet composition late in the active season are discussed.

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