Article ID: | iaor2000651 |
Country: | Netherlands |
Volume: | 111 |
Issue: | 2 |
Start Page Number: | 381 |
End Page Number: | 392 |
Publication Date: | Dec 1998 |
Journal: | European Journal of Operational Research |
Authors: | Morton Thomas E., Bollapragada Srinivas, Gavirneni Srinagesh |
Keywords: | time series & forecasting methods, forecasting: applications, programming: dynamic |
Muth first considered the linear cost periodic review inventory problem in which the mean demand in a period undergoes a non-observed random walk. Assuming the random walk variance and the within period demand variance to be known, and stationary, he showed that the Best Linear Unbiased Estimate for the mean is given by exponential smoothing and derived the formula for the optimal steady state smoothing constant in terms of the variances. We first show that the corresponding Bayesian analysis is useful under transient conditions, and converges to the Muth results under steady state. For the steady state solution, we prove that the myopic policy is near-optimal, using the concepts of