Stationary tail probabilities in exponential server tandems with renewal arrivals

The problem considered is that of estimating the tail stationary probability for two exponential server queues in series fed by renewal arrivals. We compute the tail of the marginal queue length distribution at the second queue. The marginal at the first queue is known by the classical result for the GI/M/1 queue. The approach involves deriving necessary and sufficient conditions on the paths of the arrival and virtual service processes in order to get a large queue size at the second queue. We then use large deviations estimates of the probabilities of these paths, and solve a constrained convex optimization problem to find the most likely path leading to a large queue size. We find that the stationary queue length distribution at the second queue has an exponentially decaying tail, and obtain the exact rate of decay.