Are sports seedings good predictors? An evaluation

Very little attention has been given to predicting outcomes of sporting events. While studies have examined the accuracy of alternative methods of predicting the outcomes of thoroughbred horse races, some obvious predictors of the outcomes of other sporting events have not been examined. In this paper, we evaluate whether rankings (seedings) are good predictors of the actual outcomes in two sports: (1) US collegiate basketball and (2) professional tennis. In this analysis we use statistical probit regressions with the difference in rankings as the predictor of the outcome of games and/or matches. We evaluate both the ex post and ex ante predictions using base rate forecasts and Brier scores. We conclude that the rankings, by themselves, are useful predictors and that the probits improve on this performance.