Article ID: | iaor19992716 |
Country: | Netherlands |
Volume: | 73 |
Issue: | 2 |
Start Page Number: | 233 |
End Page Number: | 245 |
Publication Date: | Mar 1998 |
Journal: | Stochastic Processes and Their Applications |
Authors: | Clancy Damian, O'Neill Philip |
Keywords: | epidemiology |
This paper is concerned with the approximation of a class of open population epidemic models by time-inhomogeneous birth-and-death processes. In particular, we consider models in which the population of susceptibles behaves in the absence of infection as a general branching process. It is shown that for a large initial number of susceptibles, the process of infectives behaves approximately as a time-inhomogeneous birth-and-death process. Strong convergence results are obtained over an increasing sequence of time intervals [0,