Evolutionary patterns of urban production systems

Long-term (structural) changes in urban systems are analyzed from the view-point of the dynamics of the production systems concerned. On the basis of some simple assumptions a discrete dynamic model is derived, which has a structure similar to the well known May type of models in population dynamics. This model appears to be able to generate a diversity of evolutionary paths ranging from stable to chaotic patterns. Next, this basic model is extended by means of endogenous R&D investments and mutual exclusion phenomena between different competitive urban production systems. It is essentially demonstrated that regular urban life cycles are not necessarily a plausible phenomenon in urban dynamics, but that irregular fluctuations may equally well occur, depending on the initial conditions, the production structure, and the various feedbacks incorporated in the model.