Capacity planning for intensive care units

In this paper we describe a simulation model for bed capacity planning in Intensive Care. The model shows that there is a non-linear relationship between numbers of beds, mean occupancy level and the numbers of patients that have to be transferred through lack of bed space. Furthermore, there is a heavy trade off between bed occupancy and the number of transfers. The model employs a rudimentary deferral rule for the elective patients when their admission is blocked through lack of bed space; from this we conclude that there is scope for a more effective elective patient admission scheduling system. As a result of this work, a multi-disciplinary Intensive Care Modelling Task Group has been set up to guide the development of a more sophisticated model.