A farm level expert simulation system to aid farmers in selecting among crop insurance strategies

An expert simulation system (ESS) in aid U.S. farmers select crop insurance strategies is presented. The ESS, entitled CIRMAN, relies on stochastic simulation models to analyze the problem and formulates a series of rules to make recommendations. The following lexiographic hierarchy of rules is used to rank the strategy options: (1) risk efficiency; (2) probability of farm survival; (3) probability of economic success; (4) expected value of after-tax net present value of family withdrawals plus the change in net worth over the planning horizon; (5) average expected annual net-cash farm income; and (6) average expected value of ending net worth. CIRMAN presents a recommendation and explanations on why a strategy was recommended and how it compares to specified alternatives.