A model for long-term global air quality prediction and development of efficient control strategies in Turkey

This paper presents an environmental model which differentiates fuel consumption by sectoral use and allows for the reduction of emissions by coupling different emission control technologies to energy conversion and end-use activities. The model can be coupled to any energy model for forecasting air pollutant emissions and developing efficient emission control strategies. An energy–economy module has been integrated into the model and an equilibrium solution for the three-component model is obtained by utility maximization. Effects of emission limits on energy activities and on macroeconomical variables are investigated by restricting total pollutant emissions to the standards of the European Community. Numerical results are presented in the form of long-term forecasts focusing on the pollutants SO2 and NOX. Emission control measures, implied from the model results, are discussed revealing an efficient emission control strategy.