Complex dynamics and control of arms race

Complex dynamics and control of arms race

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Article ID: iaor19991297
Country: Netherlands
Volume: 100
Issue: 1
Start Page Number: 192
End Page Number: 215
Publication Date: Jul 1997
Journal: European Journal of Operational Research
Authors: , ,
Keywords: politics
Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to show that asymmetric, nonlinear armament strategies may lead to chaotic motion in a discrete-time Richardson-type model on the arms race between two rival nations. Local bifurcation analysis reveals that ‘complicated’ dynamics will only occur if neither nation has an absolute advantage over the other one with respect to its level of armament and its capability to keep up the expenditures on armament. The calculation of Lyapunov exponents supports the existence of chaos. Since transitions to chaos can be identified with transitions to war, we use the Ott–Grebogi–Yorke-algorithm to stabilize the arms race model in the chaotic regime and improve the system's performance by making very small time-dependent changes of a parameter under control.

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