Subjective estimation of the delay time distribution in maintenance modelling

In this paper, the problems in the current method for obtaining a subjective estimate of the delay time distribution used in maintenance modelling are discussed and a brief literature survey on assessing subjective probability and expert judgment in decision making is presented. Based upon the results of the survey and experience in conducting a subjective estimating procedure for the delay time distribution, a revised procedure and method for obtaining the subjective delay time estimate is proposed, and the models for combining experts' opinions and updating the delay time distribution are also discussed. Case examples are given in the paper to demonstrate the methodology.