Article ID: | iaor1989954 |
Country: | United States |
Volume: | 116 |
Issue: | 1 |
Start Page Number: | 37 |
End Page Number: | 48 |
Publication Date: | Jan 1990 |
Journal: | Journal of Transportation Engineering (ASCE) |
Authors: | De Neufville Richard |
Keywords: | decision |
A procedure for siting major new airports is proposed and validated by example of its successful use in Australia to obtain agreement on the location of the second Sydney airport. The technique differs from the traditional master planning approach. It recognizes explicitly our inability to predict the future, and thus confronts the real range of risks that may exist. In such risky situations, the optimal solution involves: (1) Insurance, as flexibility to meet possible future conditions; and (2) a strategy for dealing with these contingencies as they develop. Securing a site for a new airport provides the insurance for future needs; acknowledging that the facility to be built depends on future circumstances provides the basis for the strategy.