| Article ID: | iaor1989931 |
| Country: | United States |
| Volume: | 36 |
| Issue: | 4 |
| Start Page Number: | 425 |
| End Page Number: | 440 |
| Publication Date: | Dec 1989 |
| Journal: | Technological Forecasting & Social Change |
| Authors: | Bodger Patrick S., Haves David J., Baines James Y. |
The historical data for world market penetrations of different primary energy sectors over time involves wood, coal, oil, gas and nuclear. An energy-based dynamic systems model of industrial society is developed in this paper, which generates intersubstitution of one energy form for another. By judicious selection of selected energetic parameters, the historical world primary energy substitution patterns are replicated. The model is then used to evaluate future energy options.