Further thoughts on simplicity and complexity in population projection models

Further thoughts on simplicity and complexity in population projection models

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Article ID: iaor1999545
Country: Netherlands
Volume: 13
Issue: 4
Start Page Number: 557
End Page Number: 565
Publication Date: Oct 1997
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting
Authors:
Keywords: demography
Abstract:

This article is a review of—and response to—a special issue of Mathematical Population Studies that focused on the relative performance of simpler vs. more complex population projection models. I do not attempt to summarize or comment on each of the articles in the special issue, but rather present an additional perspective on several points: definitions of simplicity and complexity, empirical evidence regarding population forecast accuracy, the costs and benefits of disaggregation, the potential benefits of combining forecasts, criteria for evaluating projection models, and issues of economic efficiency in the production of population projections. I believe that further discussion of these and related topics will deepen our understanding of the projection process and make population projections more useful for planning and analysis.

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