The impact of semantic ambiguity on Bayesian weights

The impact of semantic ambiguity on Bayesian weights

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Article ID: iaor19981788
Country: Netherlands
Volume: 84
Issue: 1
Start Page Number: 163
End Page Number: 169
Publication Date: Jul 1995
Journal: European Journal of Operational Research
Authors:
Abstract:

Generally, human users provide evidence assessments for intelligent systems. Users see or hear data D and determine if it is evidence of the type E or not E. Unfortunately, since expert systems often model complex and ambiguous processes, there is a probability distribution that D will be categorized as E or not E (E′). This evidence categorization problem is referred to in this paper as semantic ambiguity. The purpose of this paper is to model the impact of semantic ambiguity in the context of a well-known set of weights. In particular, this paper uses the Bayesian AL/X weights as the basis of that model. The resulting model shows that semantic ambiguity can have a substantial impact on the resulting probabilities. The same approach can be extended to other forms of weights on rules or other similar structures.

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