Calendar effects in the sales of gasoline

Calendar effects in the sales of gasoline

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Article ID: iaor19981725
Country: Portugal
Volume: 17
Issue: 2
Start Page Number: 201
End Page Number: 217
Publication Date: Dec 1997
Journal: Investigao Operacional
Authors:
Keywords: time series & forecasting methods
Abstract:

The general behaviour of the gasoline sales contains calendar effects due to changing month length, weekly periodicity's, and holidays (which represents the calendar effects). Moreover, it is important to model the impact of extended weekends, ‘Carnival’ and ‘Easter’ effects. Finally, it became necessary to seasonally adjust the remaining series. The number of Saturdays, Sundays and holidays does not change the volume of sales, but the working-days already have an impact. The additional analysis of the precipitation did not reveal a significant effect on sales. After the adjustment, a much smoother series is obtained, especially in terms of homologous growth rates.

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