| Article ID: | iaor19981230 |
| Country: | United States |
| Volume: | 27 |
| Issue: | 5 |
| Start Page Number: | 38 |
| End Page Number: | 53 |
| Publication Date: | Sep 1997 |
| Journal: | Interfaces |
| Authors: | Harris Carl M., Rattner Edward |
| Keywords: | forecasting: applications |
We developed predictions of HIV/AIDS caseloads and costs for the Northern Virginia Planning District Commission as input to its continuing evaluation of the economic welfare of northern Virginia's cities and counties. We developed a series of procedures beginning with US case and cost estimates for the period 1990 to 2000 and leading to estimates of state and local HIV/AIDS cases and costs. As a result, we estimate that the annual incidence of AIDS in northern Virginia will increase from 391 in 1990 to 643 by 2000, while pre-AIDS prevalence will decline from a peak of about 6,900 in 1993 to about 4,400 in 2000. We estimate the medical costs to the region of AIDS (excluding pre-AIDS cases) will reach $65 million annually (1992 $) by the turn of the century.