A Bayesian failure model based on isotropic deterioration

In this paper, we focus on determining a new failure model for hydraulic structures. The failure model is based on the only information which is commonly available: the amount of deterioration averaged over a finite or an infinite time-horizon. By introducing a prior density for the average deterioration per unit time, we account for uncertainty in a decision problem. Advantages of our Bayesian approach are that we base our probabilistic models on a physical observable quantity, the deterioration, and that the probabilities of preventive repair and failure can be expressed explicitly conditional on the average deterioration. One illustration from the field of hydraulic engineering is studied.