Replacement of technology when a new technological breakthrough is expected

Replacement of technology when a new technological breakthrough is expected

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Article ID: iaor1998616
Country: Netherlands
Volume: 27
Issue: 3
Start Page Number: 265
End Page Number: 278
Publication Date: Dec 1996
Journal: Engineering Optimization
Authors: ,
Keywords: manufacturing industries, programming: markov decision, innovation, maintenance, repair & replacement, programming: dynamic
Abstract:

A replacement problem is presented in which two technologies are involved. One technology is immediately available whereas the second, considered a technological breakthrough, is expected at some uncertain time in the future. The technological environment is dynamic. Therefore, special attention is given to the availability and reliability of data. Decision horizon stopping rules are suggested when long time horizons are considered. The algorithm is different from currently known standard procedures. It does not rely on the monotonicity properties of the optimal solution that occur when the horizon is extended, nor on action elimination considerations based on non-homogeneous Markov decision analysis. Rather, a special procedure is suggested in which an auxiliary problem binds the solution of the original problem. Interrelationships between the two problems lead to the desired horizon results. The procedure detects much shorter forecast horizons than the Bess and Sethi (1988) procedure without increasing the computational effort needed.

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