In this paper we present an analysis of the initial conditions of a seismic simulation model. The model admits that: (a) the time interval between two occurrences (Dti) depends on the two preceding time intervals (Dti–1, Dti–2); (b) the magnitude (Gi) depends on the two preceding magnitudes (Gi–1, Gi–2), and the time interval between this occurrence and the preceding occurrence (Dti); (c) the location of an occurrence (Ei) depends on the preceding location (Ei–1), the magnitude of the last occurrence (Gi) and the time interval between this occurrence and the last (Dti). To start the simulation process in this model we need to assign values to Dti–1, Dti–2, Gi–1, Gi–2 and Ei–1. In this paper we will assess the influence of the initial conditions in the simulations. To do this we considered two regions (Lisbon and South Spain) and four ‘time windows’: 7, 15, 30 and 90 days. Results were computed separately for two levels of Richter magnitude (between 4 and 5, and greater than 5). The AHP methodology has been used to analyse the influence of the three factors: Time, Magnitude and Space (location). This methodology allows us to analyse the global influence of each factor, using pair comparisons between factors.
