Optimal human resource recruiting policies via goal programming

In certain categories of organizations, such as education and government, it is difficult to lay off employees when human resources need decline because of systems like tenure and civil service. Downturns tend to occur periodically, and so such organizations need to deal with them as best they can within the limits of their systems. This paper models this problem as a goal program, and evaluates various recruitment policies with respect to optimizing the probelm. Using the simplest (linear) model, it finds that a myopic policy (hire to meet immediate needs each year when possible) is optimal if it results in a shortage of only one period. But if it results in a shortage of two or more periods, and if attrition is not extremely high, then it is better to hire below immediate needs before the downturn. The quadratic version of the model gives a similar result, but the solution is smoothed slightly compared to the linear solution. The minimax version of the model yields optimal policies that do not make sense in this context (slight reductions in the objective come at a great cost in total deviations).